1. When you said, "To get to $1B in revenue by 2030, FIGS would need to grow its top-line roughly 56% per year for the next five years", why are you only compounding the top-line for 5 years when this is a 9 year period?? Over 9 years the CAGR would only need to be high-teens to achieve this objective?

2. You know the WC will drop (as a %) as inventory becomes larger and there will be less variance in inventory from a percentage basis? Lulu, which has inventory in stores for heaven's sake, is at 10%! Stores require a stupidly larger amount of inventory between in-store products and the amount you need to store at distribution centers to meet demand.

Putting these two together, say you get to $1 billion in 5 years and then compound at 15% for the remaining (not unreasonable) you get revenue of $1.75B (give or take). With WC of 10% (equal to LuLu's inherently higher WC of their structure, worst case), subtract taxes, and you get a FCFGP of greater than 10%. This means FCFGP of at least $175 million.

This still doesn't take into account international growth, product diversification, or the fact that a DTC brand will have their SG&A go way below 40%, due to low overhead expenses.

I liked your thesis but I'm curious what you think about these comments. Thank you for the article!

Great article! I do have a few questions though:

1. When you said, "To get to $1B in revenue by 2030, FIGS would need to grow its top-line roughly 56% per year for the next five years", why are you only compounding the top-line for 5 years when this is a 9 year period?? Over 9 years the CAGR would only need to be high-teens to achieve this objective?

2. You know the WC will drop (as a %) as inventory becomes larger and there will be less variance in inventory from a percentage basis? Lulu, which has inventory in stores for heaven's sake, is at 10%! Stores require a stupidly larger amount of inventory between in-store products and the amount you need to store at distribution centers to meet demand.

Putting these two together, say you get to $1 billion in 5 years and then compound at 15% for the remaining (not unreasonable) you get revenue of $1.75B (give or take). With WC of 10% (equal to LuLu's inherently higher WC of their structure, worst case), subtract taxes, and you get a FCFGP of greater than 10%. This means FCFGP of at least $175 million.

This still doesn't take into account international growth, product diversification, or the fact that a DTC brand will have their SG&A go way below 40%, due to low overhead expenses.

I liked your thesis but I'm curious what you think about these comments. Thank you for the article!